The global steel market is still volatile but appears to be gaining greater stability following the first “intense” rounds of trade tariff negotiations with the US, miner Vale’s Vice President for Commercial and Development, Rogerio Nogueira, told analysts on the company’s second-quarter results call Aug. 1.

In addition, China’s first-half GDP growth of more than 5%, with indications of mild incentives to be offered to the industry, was positive, he said.

Crude steel production in China had declined 3% year over year so far in 2025 in a capacity rationalization program, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics, Nogueira noted.

However, the data showed the bulk of the decline had been from electric arc furnaces, as China’s pig iron production from blast furnaces had fallen just 0.8%, which was positive for the iron ore sector and for Vale, he said.

“The blast integrated processes are more competitive these days than the EAFs when one factors in the demand for seaborne iron ore,” Nogueira said. “The [Chinese] mills which are outstanding will probably have higher margins, need more productivity and higher-quality ores.”

China’s iron ore imports had been stable, as were inventories at ports of about 140 million mt, he said. Ex-China, the steel sector might see more changes than within China, he said.

Chinese steel exports, which should rise to more than 100 million mt in 2025, were impacting crude steel production ex- China, Nogueira said. One bright point for Vale was that India, where crude steel production had risen more than 9% in 2025, was opening up to high-quality iron ore imports and the company should export more than 10 million mt iron ore to India in 2025, he said.

“This should grow in coming years as we partner with some of the Chinese players,” Nogueira said. “Overall, the global iron ore market is balanced.”

— S&P Global Commodity Insights